Pedro Sánchez outlines his strategy to withstand the 'Cerdán storm' and reach 2027

President Pedro Sánchez has chosen to resist. His strategy, for now, doesn't stray from the desired script. The President sharpens his confrontation with Donald Trump, adopts a low profile, and appeals to the moral difference with Partido Popular.

But the Koldo case, the imprisonment of Santos Cerdán, and the sordid echoes caused by José Luis Ábalos are damaging PSOE in the polls. Even among the most loyal to Sanchismo, people are asking how much longer Sánchez can endure this drip of corruption without his political project being completely corroded.

Sánchez is playing the resistance game. The President keeps standing while the fire hasn't reached his room yet. He would do so if it becomes clear that the party's accounts were tainted by the corrupt scheme.  Or if it's proven that he knew about the corruption when he removed Ábalos from the Council of Ministers in the summer of 2021.

There are signs pointing in several directions. Ábalos's version, for example, isn't minor. The former minister claims that Sánchez already knew in September 2023 that UCO was investigating his former collaborator Koldo García. Although that doesn't prove complicity or cover-up, it does cast doubt on the story of the swift reaction that PSOE has tried to build from day one.

It's also not unnoticed that the Attorney General, Álvaro García Ortiz, is considered by broad sectors of the judiciary as a pawn of the Executive. That perception fuels the argument that PSOE acts with double standards and that institutional control isn't so far from the Government's will. All of that weakens the message of cleanliness that the party wants to keep.

The strategy of comparison with PP, although recurrent, is starting to show signs of wear. In Ferraz, they insist they're not the same, that while PSOE removes their own as soon as there are signs, as happened with Cerdán or with Ábalos himself, when he was pushed to leave the socialist seat and move to the mixed group, PP keeps indicted members like Ana Millán.

The number three of the party in Madrid and vice president of the Assembly is being investigated for four alleged crimes linked to corruption. It's worth remembering that PP has accumulated 28 open judicial cases related to corrupt practices.

But the "and you more" discourse doesn't serve to contain PSOE's crisis. What is starting to emerge within socialism is a sense of wear, not only because of the reputational stain, but also because of the feeling that they're governing in permanent survival mode.  Nevertheless, Sánchez seems far from the defeatism or panic that has taken hold among the middle ranks of his party.

If It Gets Complicated

If the Koldo case gets complicated, the idea of calling a Federal Congress and announcing that he won't run for re-election in 2027 is starting to gain traction as an honorable way out for Sánchez. It's a way to calm the waters, open an orderly succession process, and prevent personal wear from ending up contaminating the entire socialist project.

If the matter splashes Sánchez, the President could activate the transfer of leadership to Salvador Illa, the most highly rated figure in current socialism. The operation would be overseen from Moncloa, and names like Óscar Puente or Félix Bolaños would play a key role in designing the transition. The first as a media battering ram, the second as the organic brain.

It's not a move that's being considered today, nor tomorrow. It would be the last button, the emergency one. The one Sánchez could press if the scandal doesn't dissipate, if a bigger crack opens in the party. Or if social pressure ends up affecting governability.

But meanwhile, the President holds on. His resistance isn't only political, it's also personal. That's his mark, his way of fighting. He's aware that the longer the storm lasts, the closer the moment when everything returns to normal. Although this time the mud has splashed higher than ever.

Weak Points

PSOE longs for any PP crisis to get involved. The Congress that will confirm Alberto Núñez Feijóo as President next weekend will leave some internal wounds. In fact, Isabel Díaz Ayuso has had to give up "one member, one vote." And Cuca Gamarra has been shown the door out of the general secretariat.

The "popular" leader in Catalonia, Alejandro Fernández, demands that a pact with Junts per Catalunya be ruled out. In Madrid's PP, they demand a shift to the right to compete in the same fishing ground as Vox.