PSOE faces a judicial ordeal: Santos Cerdán's imprisonment is the first stop

Until a few days ago, the all-powerful Santos Cerdán León (Milagro, 1969) "doesn't even bat an eyelash," sources close to the former deputy analyze. He doesn't, despite the countless pieces of evidence that make up his current horizon. Even though he is positioned as the leader of a corrupt scheme that collected kickbacks in exchange for facilitating public contracts, he presents himself as the victim of a political operation supposedly motivated by his negotiating role with PNV and EH Bildu so that his then boss, President Pedro Sánchez, could reach Moncloa in 2018.

Pretrial detention without bail in Soto del Real for Santos Cerdán, former Secretary of Organization of PSOE, has triggered a political crisis of still unpredictable proportions.

Accused by the Supreme Court of bribery, influence peddling, and membership in a criminal organization, Cerdán flatly denies the charges against him. The investigating judge, Leopoldo Puente, considers the evidence "notable." In fact, they paint a picture of alleged corruption by this former leader with a humble appearance.

Cerdán's ties to the suspect Servinavar, owned by Antxón Alonso, a striking partner of a giant like Acciona, explode at the heart of PSOE's political strategy. The arrest is unexpected because the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office didn't request prison for José Luis Ábalos (who said little). Nor for Koldo García (who remained silent).

The entry into prison caught President Pedro Sánchez at the UN Summit in Seville. "We act forcefully and with respect for justice. It will be justice that must determine Mr. Cerdán's responsibility," he said this Monday. Specifically, after learning that his former right-hand man arrived at court by taxi and left in a police car.

Five Million Euros

According to Judge Puente's order, the evidence against Cerdán is "solid" and, in addition, he believes that there is a risk of destruction of evidence. The Navarrese was, until a few days ago, protected by parliamentary immunity, which prevented him from being investigated. The situation, and his alleged leadership in a scheme that Cerdán himself would have started in Navarre, leads the judge to send him to prison.

Not only have compromising audios been found between him, José Luis Ábalos (former Minister of Transport), and his former adviser, Koldo García. In addition, the magistrate believes it is reasonable to estimate that Cerdán could have pocketed up to five million euros in illicit commissions.

The magnitude of the contracts under suspicion, more than 579 million USD (537 million euros), and the repeated pattern of favoring certain UTE partners, without these offering the best economic conditions, point to an orchestrated and ongoing scheme. The fact that decisions were made based on "subjective" criteria, as the judge points out, further aggravates the suspicion of corruption.

Meanwhile, Cerdán has chosen the strategy of silence before the judge and the popular accusations. He only answered his lawyer and denied the facts. The Navarrese attributed the accusations to an alleged political vendetta for his role in forming the current coalition government.

This "victimhood," far from strengthening his defense, has been interpreted as an evasive maneuver. This may have ultimately convinced the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office that his immediate imprisonment was necessary.

A Political Earthquake in the Heart of Ferraz

From a political point of view, this case hits at the heart of PSOE. Cerdán wasn't a mid-level official, but a key figure in internal decision-making. Also in the party's territorial organization and, above all, he was President Pedro Sánchez's political right-hand man.

The president clings to the fact that it hasn't been proven that the party's accounts have been tainted. Nor that he himself knew of anything resembling a corrupt scheme. Nevertheless, there are doubts about what led him to remove Ábalos from the Council of Ministers in the summer of 2021.

The image of "change" that PSOE tried to build since 2018 is now being incinerated under the shadow of a corrupt scheme reminiscent of past scandals. Such is the case of the ERE in Andalusia or Filesa in the 1990s.

Electoral Impact: A Growing Threat

The consequences for PSOE could be complicated electorally. This case comes at a time when the party was already suffering wear and tear from the political cost of the Koldo case.

Moreover, the political ammunition this represents for the opposition is significant. Partido Popular, despite having 28 corruption cases pending trial, will try to take advantage of every step of the judicial process to wear down the government.

What's Next? A Judicial Ordeal for PSOE

The imprisonment of Santos Cerdán marks the beginning of a judicial ordeal that promises to be long. The investigations remain open, and the judge himself makes it clear that there are still many pieces yet to be discovered.

Each new piece of information that emerges could drag more leaders or directly implicate the government. The fact that the judge points to the possibility of more people involved suggests that the case has only just begun.

Alleged audios recorded by Koldo García remain hanging in the air. Ábalos's former adviser has reported that this Sunday someone broke into his mother's apartment in Benidorm. Koldo García would believe that they didn't break in to steal, but to obtain the hard drives that would include conversations with personalities such as President Pedro Sánchez, Pepe Blanco, or major Ibex 35 business leaders.